War and politics since Sep 22, 2001.
Written by Bjørn Stærk. Mail me at
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Tuesday, October 29, 2002
Posted
20:39 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
The landed gentry of Sweden—like their counterparts in France, Germany and England—are disdainful of American low culture, in all of its globalist/imperialist permutations. While not shocking, I had always found Swedes to be universally agreeable, unlike the English, French or Germans. During my brief Stockholm junket, the locals I spoke with were kind, helpful and devoid of the de rigueur Euro-condescension the American traveler comes to expect. So could it be true that beneath the soft exterior, Sweden—that vaunted paragon of Nordic virtue, that subzero utopia of childcare and generous welfare benefits—secretly despised us? Not really. Perhaps it's different in the larger countries, but at least Scandinavian anti-Americanism is cultural and political, not personal. At most an American traveller will be met with uninformed questions. I think most Scandinavians are too proud of the fact that foreigners want to visit their little countries for them to be rude to tourists. The best way for a foreign artist to get good press in Norway is still the magic word Norgesvenn, "friend of Norway". (Anything is forgiven of a Norgesvenn, even failing careers, and becoming one can actually be a good retirement plan.) But a quick scan of Amazon’s best-sellers in Sweden, Bokus.se (an online bokhandel, similar to Amazon), and the daily tabloid Aftonbladet told a vastly different story. The polyglot public of Sweden reads English language books like “Learning to Fly,” by former Spice Girl Victoria Beckham, the “Dr. Atkins' New Diet Revolution,” and Geri Halliwell, by (you guessed it) former Spice Girl Geri Halliwell. Today’s Aftonbladet culture section featured a story on Bruce Springsteen and one of former Nirvana frontman Kurt Cobain. On Amazon, we are told that books most often shipped to Sweden include Eric Schlosser’s indictment of American consumerism Fast Food Nation, Naomi Klein’s absurd anti-globalization tract No Logo and eight books on programming from the web and wireless devices. It is, an interesting study in contrasts where, on one hand, Swedes reject the perceived hyper-Americanization of Europe by purchasing truckloads of trendy anti-American leftism* written by American academics while, at the same time, desperately studying advances in American technology, like Microsoft’s Visual Studio .NET in an effort at social advancement. Yes, it's an interesting paradox. Sweden is more anti-American than Norway, (possibly because of their neutrality in ww2 and the Cold War), but you see the same thing that Moynihan describes here, and in every other western European country: Europeans who consider themselve intellectuals typically look down on American culture and/or politics, but at the same time they and everyone else are so submerged into the same culture that I'm not sure you can talk about separate cultures anymore. For the urban younger generations there is only culture and anti-culture - you don't choose European culture, you choose anti-American culture, which is just a dull subsection of American culture. The same people who look down on American culture find ways to admire it by thinking of what they like as anti-American, and defining only the parts they don't like (for instance Hollywood blockbusters) as American. A true alternative to American culture, however, would not rely on American culture and Americans to define it, it would have something of its own to offer that would survive without state subsidies, and could conquer American culture on its own terms. That alternative does not exist in Europe today. And a good thing that is, in my opinion, because American culture is a pretty good one. If someone were to count all the many houndreds of books, movies and music albums I've got around me as I write this, they would find a vast amount of it to be of American origin, (less than half of the books, but almost all the movies). [*] And that's not because I've made an effort to look into American culture, but because that's where most of the good stuff have been made, at least for the last 50 years. So if the European response to American culture is a culture free of Americans, then I want no part of it. There is, however, a European response that I would be enough of a patriot to fall for, and that would be to become an active part of American culture, thereby shifting its center eastwards. Only by doing that can Europe again be a driving force in its own culture. I feel I am doing something like that here, in my own small way, and I think the Internet will do it in a larger way. The Internet is the key here because it circumvents European linguistic conservatism. The language barrier is not, as many Europeans believe, the last barrier protecting us from American culture, but the first barrier protecting American culture from Europe. Tear it down, or wait for it to fall on its own, and those who can overcome their revulsion of American culture may begin to contribute to it on a larger scale. Britain is a good example. ([*] Case in point: Currently playing, the catchy synth-prog-rock bootleg score from the 1985 Transformers movie. Soon playing, last friday's episode of Firefly.)
Saturday, October 26, 2002
Posted
22:50 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
This is Progress Party politics, says the leader of Center for Anti-Racism, Nadeem Butt. Yes. Yes, it is.
Posted
17:35 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
We think everything was done professionally, as it is fixed in the operative instructions. It is really very important that we were a success in the psychological war. There was leakage of information saying that the storm would start at 3:00 a.m. The terrorists pricked up the ears, but no storm followed. Then they started firing. It is quite natural that as a consequence of it, the terrorists relaxed. We started the storm at 5:00 a.m. Sleeping gas was let into the theatre hall through the ventilation, several grenades were fired right in the hall. We managed to liquidate the female kamikaze: soldiers penetrated into the hall through special crawlways and shot the sleeping terrorists point-blank. Right at the temple. I agree that it’s cruel, but when you see a man with two kilograms of plastid strapped to the body, there is no other way to neutralize him. Besides, panic spread immediately. Here, we once again suffered from our constant mistake: lack of coordination between the actions of subdivisions. Several terrorists in the corridor started firing, those people who were not asleep after the gas penetrated into the theatre, rushed out of the hall. They ran against the special forces troops that blocked the exits. Note the last paragraph - people on the outside who weren't Chechens, (sympathizers? hostage relatives?), were keeping the terrorists informed of what was going on. And yesterday I saw an interview with a group of mothers who had been asked by their hostaged children over cell phones to protest against the Chechen war on the Red Square, and they did. Very odd. (Update 28/10: Hostage casualties have now risen to 117, and almost all of them apparently died of the gas the anti-terror unit used, whatever it was. So the operation was less of a success than it appeared, but still I think not a failure - none of the bombs were set off. I wonder how much of it was a calculated risk, though, and how much was just misuse or accident.)
Posted
17:08 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
At the time of the invasion, there were many Norwegian ships at sea including three carrying Linje Akvavit. According to my friend, all of the ships were important, but the Norwegian Government in exile felt that it was absolutely vital that the Royal Navy find these three ships, and escort them to British ports. Gill wonders if I can confirm this, and I can't, but I've heard it before, and it's worth telling again.
Posted
01:18 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
And then there's this: The political weakening of the Palestinian Authority (82nd) means it has made few assaults on press freedom. However, Islamic fundamentalist opposition media have been closed, several attempts made to intimidate and attack local and foreign journalists and many subjects remain taboo. The aim is to convey a united image of the Palestinian people and to conceal aspects such a demonstrations of support for attacks on Israel. Again, ignore the ranking: The Palestinian Authority scores 27, and Israel 30 out of 100, and again that's practically the same level of press freedom. But how meaningful is it to measure the press freedom of Israel-controlled Palestine, which is a war zone, and Israel, in the same value? And why is the West Bank and Gaza measured twice, first in Israel and then in the PA? It doesn't make sense.
Friday, October 25, 2002
Posted
22:52 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
When I read this a few days ago I had a suspicion that perhaps qsi was pulling my leg. This sounds more like a Japanese cartoon [*] than reality. It could be a good one too, - (imagine, "in the year 2012 millions of teenagers began to connect to the internet through tentacles into their brains, and merged their minds into a huge megalomaniac cyber consciousness, known as megacybcon. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to the authorities, a giant lizard is about to--" oh never mind.) Today I dug up and watched the BBC documentary he's referring to, (you'd be surprised by the kind of things one finds in alt.binaries), and the situation is really as bad as he says. Despite my sympathy for these deeply disturbed teenagers, what I felt most strongly while watching this was: "These kids need a real hard kick in the behind." They're not going to get it from the Japanes experts on this phenomenon, though, who believe in a strategy of .. non-confrontation. Well, they're the experts. Me, I'd go for the real hard kick. ([*] Yeah yeah, anime - but I can't stand people who correct others on that.) (Update: Here's a very interesting post on teenage hermits and Japanese society by Ron Campbell, who lives in Japan.)
Posted
22:27 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
Posted
22:23 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
There's something to that, of course. Hostage takers are often acting simply out of panic or temporary affection. What they want most is to get out alive, and the job of the police is to get them talking, calm them down, and make them come to their senses. Ordinarily, this makes more sense than confrontation. It works because hostage takers value their lives. But the men and women who went into that Moscow theatre the other day with explosives tied to their waists don't care about survival. We don't know if al-Qaeda is directly involved in this, probably not, but we know that the terrorist poison has long ago spread to the (otherwise understandable) Chechen rebellion, and we know that they consider suicide an acceptable option. Russia won't give in, and the terrorists must know that. My unqualified guess is that they intend to hold out a couple of days, possibly increasing the terror gradually in order to maximize media exposure, occasionally releasing some non-Russian hostages to encourage hope of a peaceful solution - and then blow everything up. In that case the only hope of saving at least some hostages is to attack at once. Luckily I don't have to make that decision, but I suspect that, just like we have been forced to accept that the right way for a passenger to deal with an airplane hijacking is not to sit still, but to attack without hesitation, the right way to deal with a hostage situation - at least those involving Muslim terrorists - is not for the police to begin talks, and drag out the inevitable, but to attack without hesitation. If we already know that many hostages will die, an early attack policy gives terrorists less time to prepare, (in this case by mining the entire theater), and also less media exposure. Norwegian media has already begun to focus on the horrors of the Chechen war, and much as it probably is important news, and a bad war, it is unacceptable that the terrorists should accomplish anything whatsoever with these acts. If they do, it will happen more often, and the only way to reduce media exposure is to solve the situation quickly, one way or another. Btw: I saw a strange clip on TV just now. A Russian TV crew had been allowed to enter the theater, where they interviewed three female hostages, masked and armed terrorists standing behind them. The women were smiling, and explained that the media had gotten the situation all wrong. Things weren't nearly as bad as they had been made out as. The hostages had probably been told beforehand to make a good impression, but there was something about the way they said it that made me think they meant it, at least in part. It was not at all like one of those clips of hostages who are forced to read a statement or confession at gunpoint, eyes shifting and fear all over their face. It was unlike anything I've seen. How long does the Stockholm syndrome take to develop?
Thursday, October 24, 2002
Posted
21:44 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
A few weeks ago, Carl I Hagen, leader of the Progress Party, on Først & Sist, a popular talk show on NRK. He's beaming with the latest poll results, chats about non-political issues with ease and charm, (a surprise to viewers who, like me, have never seen the man outside a political context), and appears as someone who knows that he is exactly where he is supposed to be in life. A week later, Holmgang, a popular debate program on TV2, pits Hagen, Siv Jensen and Torgeir Høien, all three from the Progress Party, against some of their critics in media, academia and political parties. There's Arne Strand from Dagsavisen, the insufferable mouthpiece of orthodox social democracy, Steinar Holden, a professor of economics and advisor of the central bank, environmental loonie Steinar Lem from The Future in Our Hands, who argues for economic decline, Marie Simonsen from the tabloid VG who suggests that people are too dumb to see through Hagen's lies, and Jens Stoltberg, deputy leader of Labor, who looks discomforted in the presence of the man whose party is now where Labor were until he became prime minister. Hagen responds by praising the intelligence of regular people, Siv Jensen talks about reducing taxes to increase growth as the only solution to the coming welfare crisis. One week ago, Jens Stoltenberg on Nytt på nytt, a news quiz / talk show on NRK. He appears to feel at home in the ironic and glib atmosphere of the show, and yet seems oddly pathetic as he makes self-deprecating jokes about his failure as a politician. The audience and the other guests are laughing as much off him as with him. On the news program Tabloid on TV2, several ministers complain about the endless polls in the media. "It's like every time I step off the plane on Gardermoen, there's been another election". Program host Pål T. Jørgensen asks if these complaints may have something to do with the disastrous results the coalition parties get. A few days later another poll is released, giving the centre-right coalition an approval rating of 6%, against 49% disapproval. Wednesday this week, a chuckling Gerhard Helskog introduces a documentary on TV2 about the ridiculous effects of high alcohol taxes: Norwegian alcohol producers now make good money exporting alcohol just across the Swedish border, where it is bought and smuggled back again by Norwegians, at half the price. We must go where the market is, the brewers point out. A government official explains that with alcohol prices at Danish levels, 1000 more people would die of alcohol-related causes every year. The report she bases this on has a 90% margin of error. (And today, Carl I Hagen is sued by Mullah Krekar for libel, after he called Krekar a terrorist who should not have been allowed to enter the country on the TV2 news yesterday.)
Posted
17:37 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
We note that Norway--surprise!--is the world's third largest oil exporter. We note that Norway's non-oil economy slipped into recession in the second quarter of this year. We note that the Norwegian government forecasts rising unemployment and only modest total GDP growth from now through the end of 2004. We note that even these not- especially-cheerful forecasts depend for their fulfillment on world oil prices remaining at current levels. Neat - but it's almost complete nonsense. As readers of this blog knows, Norway make much more money on oil than we feel it is wise (and perhaps moral) to spend. Nobody will complain if an oil crisis adds another umpteen billion NOK's to the national budget surplus, (except car drivers, who are fiendishly taxed), but increased oil earnings are not a top priority of the Norwegian government. Some political parties have even proposed ethical guidelines for the petroleum fund, which would forbid investments in weapons companies, polluters, tobacco companies, etc., and consequently reduce the profit. Norwegian foreign policy is mostly idealistic - it can afford to be - and to suggest a Norwegian oil conspiracy at the expense of the Iraqi people is pure ignorance. To make this argument work, the Weekly Standard must assume that Norwegians actually believe that a war on Iraq will have the intended effect of making Iraq a stable and democrat oil producer. If, like many Norwegians believe, such a war will only serve to set the Middle East [even more] on fire - wouldn't that lead to an increase in oil prices? (It probably will, too, in the short term.) Following this logic, Norway should be standing third in line for a chance to punch Saddams face. Chaos is our friend! You can only understand Norway's attitude towards diplomacy and war if you understand where we come from, or at least where we think we come from. As many historians tell it, Norway did not actually exist between the 14th century and 1905, so we weren't to blame for the many wars the Danes fought while we were a province in their mini-empire. The period under Danish rule (up to 1814 - the '400 year night') is largely ignored in school books - there may be references to this or that important event, but unless it directly concerns Norway as such they are not our events, not our wars, not our kings. We have only fought two wars, one of independence from Sweden in 1814, which we lost, and another short one against the Germans. This legacy of peace is an important part of the Norwegian self-image, and was also one reason why Alfred Nobel decided to have Norway award the Peace Prize, instead of Sweden, which awards all the others. Sweden was a an old empire, Norway had clean hands. And this again is a reason why the Nobel Peace Prize is so highly regarded in Norway. We believe in it, and what it stands for - a peaceful alternative to war. It is our one annual opportunity to make a statement on global issues that will be listened to. Equally important to understand Norwegian foreign policy is the Middle East peace process and the Oslo accords, which in our mind is an example of how diplomacy - don't laugh - can bring about world peace. It would have worked too, if it hadn't been for those pesky Israelis and Palestinians, who had to go mess up our beautiful plan. Maybe I take the Standard too seriously here. The Secret Norwegian Oil Conspiracy may be a neat counter-argument against people who believe in the Secret American Oil Conspiracy. You might make them realize how ridiculous they sound. Then again, they might instead 1) expose your poor logic and think you're an idiot, or 2) believe you, and become even more paranoid and uninformed. Either way, the truth works better, as always. The truth, and it's actually less comforting than the evil oil conspiracy theory, which at least credits us with some intelligence, is that Norway says the stupid things we say because we actually believe in them.
Thursday, October 17, 2002
Posted
23:29 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
Wednesday, October 16, 2002
Posted
21:36 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
What surprises me most is that the people in the LPF did not seem to have any instinct for self-preservation. Forget national interest. Forget responsibility. The LPF did not even seem to have an urge to prolong its own existence. Everybody could see the crash coming if they continued like this, and the opinion polls were looking ever more bleak. Precipitating the fall of the government meant for all LPFers the loss of their seats in parliament. It's amazing that this simple threat of political extinction did not impose more discipline on them. Instead, the egos of the parliamentarians asserted themselves, and if that meant sinking the party or the government, so be it.
Tuesday, October 15, 2002
Posted
22:03 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
If you want to argue against war with Iraq, then argue against war with Iraq. To argue that anyone who supports the war is a coward because they don't have to go is an argument with no merit, and exposes the weakness of your reasoning skills. There are plenty of good reasons to oppose war with Iraq. Our military does not need some lameass blogger to protect them from the rabid Republicans. They are quite capable of taking care of themselves. One thing, though: I'm a Norwegian citizen, and I actually do feel that it would be wrong of me to cheer loudly for another country to go to war. So I won't. I support the goals the US are trying to achieve, and I agree with their reasons for going there - I'm not afraid of taking a stand that may be held against me later - but there is one important question I don't have the right to answer: Is the price worth paying? The Americans seem to think it is, and I'm glad for that, but if they didn't I wouldn't be in a place to complain about it. And just to make things clear: I do think, and have a right to think, that Norway should provide military help to bring down Hussein. He's evil, dangerous, and he has terrorized his people to a point where, in front of Western TV cameras, it seems they become near hysterical with fear that they won't appear supportive enough. You can practically see the torture chambers in their eyes. We should end this. I'm sorry to say that we won't, that we're more interested in peace and stability than in safety and freedom - but best of luck to those who are going there.
Posted
21:19 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
Impotent America howls! I don't know much about poetry, but I think I detect a hidden message here. And while we're on the subject of high art, I would like to share with you all a favourite of mine, Queenie Elizabeth's poem from Blackadder, (which incidentally doesn't rhyme all the way, and has no hidden meanings - that's two points for Vegard!): When the night is dark
Monday, October 14, 2002
Posted
21:27 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
He was referring to the last mock referendum, seven years ago, when beloved leader and romantic novelist Saddam Hussein got some 99.96% support. (The results will no doubt be higher this time - the 0.04% who voted against Hussein in 1995 are probably dead.) If anyone needs me I'll be hiding under the sofa, sucking my thumb for a while. Terrorists, nuclear madmen, even intergalactic evil overlords, should we encounter some - that I can handle. This is too much. (Update: Dean Esmay coins a new term for this sort of thing: A Duranty report.)
Posted
17:59 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
First, his historical challenges. The point about the Norwegian Navy is well-taken, but this is a distinctly different issue than the volunteer question. If there's a problem with the volunteer figures, that's the Nuav website's calculations, not mine. It seems like a reasonably well-done website without an axe to grind. However, if anyone shows me that the figures are inaccurate, I'll be happy to remove the reference and the link. I didn't say the figures were inaccurate. You just used them wrong. Here's from the NUAV website: About 15 000 Norwegians volunteered to the Wehrmacht or SS during the years 1940-1945, and an estimate of 7000 reached the front lines in some way. .. Quisling, however saw this as a rather disappointing number, as he had visions of about 50,000 proud Norwegian soldiers, but one should bear in mind that "only" 11,000 volunteered to serve with the Allies, mainly the British. The Norwegian Police formations in Sweden, or the Merchant Navy sailors are not included in this number. My emphasis. So if you do count the 33000 sailors there were actually three times as many who fought for the allies as fought for the Germans. And the Germans had three million Norwegians to recruit from, with a full propaganda apparatus at their disposal. The Allies could only get those who managed to escape. I don't know how many there were in total, but I'm sure that most of the emigrants joined the Allied effort in one way or another. And I'm not just including the sailors to inflate the number. Being on a transport ship in the Atlantic in the early years of the war was a pretty horrible experience, and these people sacrificed and achieved just as much as any front line soldier. They also spent several decades trying to get official recognition in Norway for their efforts. For a long time, the warsailors were considered to be (and to some extent were) outcasts, bums and drunks, perhaps not unlike the Vietnam veterans. So I'd say the omission is pretty important. With respect to Norway's struggle in the north, it should be noted that the British began landing troops in central and northern Norway within a week of the German invasion. With all due respect, that, plus the commitment of major Allied naval and air assets, was the reason for the prolonging of the fight there. Of course. I'm not claiming we had a significant military force. All I'm saying is that we fought, and that we didn't give up until we had to - and then we went underground. The only major tactical achievement of the Norwegian underground movement that I know of was the destruction of the heavy water plant at Rjukan, which may or may not have delayed the German nuclear bomb. But the underground movement, and the knowledge that the King and government had joined the Allies in Britan, was a major boost for public morale. Norway did not give in to the Nazis. The vast majority of the nation stood united against the many attempts to nazify Norway, (we were, after all, considered cousins of the Aryan race.) Norway didn't play a major role in the overall war, but we preserved our honor at the one time when it mattered the most. The Nobel committee is appointed by the Norwegian government, frequently former ministers and parliamentarians. Like Mr. Berge. Consequently, it is not an unreasonable supposition that the Nobel Committee represents mainstream government views. You don't get prestige posts by rocking the boat with your colleagues. Absolutely. I have no quarrel with this. I'm just saying that you chose, as an example of Norwegian appeasement and cowardice, that one period in the 20th century we have the most reason to be proud of. That one time where we actually got it right, despite the pre-war naivety, and despite the centuries of sheltered peace. If you want a better example to illustrates the folly of the Norwegian worldview, I suggest the Oslo Accords. That was Norwegian diplomacy at its best - the culmination of our entire post-war diplomatic tradition, the beta release of everything we believe in. It failed, and proved our worldview wrong. We haven't realized this, and consequently haven't learned from our mistakes. Hence Carter, Annan, etc. (Update: Matthew Wagner makes some similar points in Dale's blog.)
Sunday, October 13, 2002
Posted
13:00 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
As you may know, the prize originates in the insignificant Kingdom of Norway (don't feel bad if you can't find it on a map--it truly does not matter). Norway is a country best-known for whale-killing and giving the English language the noun "quisling." In World War II, like all parts of Western Europe not entirely surrounded by water, this country folded up like a cheap suit once a platoon full of Germans got within firing range. They even provided willing help to Hitler and his jack-booted legions after the occupation. In fact, more Norwegians volunteered to fight for the Axis than for the Allies. He's got us confused with somebody else. Norway made several mistakes leading up to the war - we didn't see Hitler coming, should have been better prepared, should have joined the Brits, etc. - but when he did come we fought back, about as well as we could do under the circumstances. The north held out longer than Poland, France, Belgium and Holland, which at least disproves the accusation of cowardice. The NS and the Quisling/Terboven administrations were also extremely unpopular, and it is a marvel that anyone volunteered for the eastern front at all. (Another shameful chapter was that we didn't do more to save the 1400 Jews. Only half of them got out and survived.) Norway was occupied, but not conquered, and certainly not "providing willing help". And any figure of volunteers that doesn't include the 30000 sailors who took part in the battle of the Atlantic, (and his doesn't), isn't worth the bytes it's stored in. Always sad to see a good, but a bit obvious, point (Nobel Peace Prize + Jimmy Carter = Silly Norwegians) made on bogus history.
Posted
11:13 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
The terrorists failed against the US, so perhaps now they're going after its allies, hoping that they're cowards, and that they'll blame and turn against the US for bringing this on them. "Our quarrel is with the Americans, not you. Go away, and we won't bother you any more." I think - I hope - this is a tactical mistake, that the more Australians and Europeans who die of terrorism, the more these countries will sympathize and stand together with the US. There obviously are a lot of Westerners [*] who are receptible to these kinds of arguments, who won't see why they should suffer for American imperialism, and we already know that al-Qaeda is paying attention to and exploiting Western anti-war arguments. (Remember when they suddenly began to care about the Palestinians?) But I also think that, if there is a terrorist campaign against US allies, the terrorist sympathizers, defeatists and pacifists will be exposed there as they have been in the US. You're messing with the wrong culture, buddies. ([*] Update: Case in point.)
Saturday, October 12, 2002
Posted
18:58 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
In other words, he was more likely a lone nut than an organized terrorist - unless they've got a Walker Lindh on their hands. (See also Teemu Lehtonen's blog.)
Friday, October 11, 2002
Posted
23:53 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
Bill Clinton, who, it shall be remembered, was received in Norway as a president five months after he had stopped being one, should take note of this.
Thursday, October 10, 2002
Posted
20:27 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
This guy and this guy wants the practice of online tax records to stop. No wonder they're afraid of the searchlight - they make more than I do!
Wednesday, October 09, 2002
Posted
19:07 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
It's a good idea - but in the proposed national budget for 2003 the coalition appears to have jumped straight between, and fallen flat on their stomach. It's the ultimate bland, dead-center coalition budget, and it has not been received well. There are some minor tax cuts, which makes it unacceptable to the Socialist Left and Labor, and yet taxes aren't by far cut enough for the Progress Party, who also feel that several pet causes of theirs are blatantly stepped on. Personally, I'm most offended by the 2.2% increase in alcohol taxes. It's not a big deal, of course - there are more important things in life than cheap beer - but it is an annoyance, and it is symbolic of the general attitude of the government towards taxes, and towards the Norwegian people. The trade leak to and smuggling through relative consumer paradise Sweden is increasing, with economic and even lethal consequences. Seven Norwegians have died over the last couple of weeks from smuggled alcohol containing methanol. (Thank you, Bondevik, was one smugglers reaction to the budget.) Budget debates are always noisy, and Bondeviks coalition may survive again - there are no alternatives - but Carl I Hagen and the Progress Party is the big winner, whether the budget passes or not. The Progress Party is up several points to 29.5% in a poll taken after the recent budget debacle, way ahead of both the centre coalition and of Labor. What's more, I've never seen the Progress Party taken as seriously by the media as they have been the last week. It's Hagen and Siv Jensen all the time, on all (both) channels. They are allowed to present their views, and when confronted by obviously partisan journalists (as on the NRK news this evening) they come out making a good impression after all to those who matter - the viewers - a skill no doubt perfected through decades as political and media outcasts. For instance, follow that link in the previous paragraph, to an article in the english section of Aftenposten. It has a mild but noticable pro-Progress Party bias. The writer has American background, and I don't think an article like that would be written in any of the major newspapers - yet - but I perceive the level of media vitriol to be considerable lower than only two years ago. There are no more accusations of racism, for instance, only of demagoguery and cruelty, which is as you would expect for a right-wing populist party in a social democracy. I'm now convinced that Carl I Hagen has a good chance of becoming prime minister, if not in this period, then in 2005. I'm also beginning to think that this will be a good thing. I'm not sure how to describe Progress Party politics - welfare libertarianism, perhaps, although that sounds more contradictory than it is. The source of the confusion is oil, which Norway makes a hell of a lot of money on, almost none of which is actually spent. The budget deficit of 2002 would only be $5.7 billion without oil, (or about 2.3% of GDP - good enough for the EU). Government sits tight on these money, out of the - certainly justified - fear that careless spending will be bad for the economy. The Progress Party wants to spend at least another $billion of it - but abroad, (for instance, by buying expensive medical equipment), to avoid affecting the local economy. Now, I'm no expert on economic issues, and I'm aware that government can't usually even blow it's nose without unintended consequences, but I can't see the logical flaw here. I can see why spending abroad would be bad if we were saving the money for something very important, unlike, say, maintaining the welfare system beyond expiration date, or that it would be bad if it drove norwegian producers of expensive medical equipment out of business, and I can even see why such careless spending would violate some kind of protestant work ethic, etc., but I can't see the logical flaw. Well, either I'm dumb or our politicians are stubborn, because the very idea is ridiculed by the other parties. Spending abroad to increase welfare is not a cause I care about - I think the bloated Scandinavian welfare state is a bad idea - but the Norwegian people is not ready to dismantle social democracy, and until we are, all I can hope for is a party that will at least dismantle parts of it. And this I think Progress Party will attempt. They will, I believe, look with fresh and critical eyes on our many silly taxes and subsidies, and perhaps get started some long overdue privatization reform. I won't like half of their actions, but the other half might be important enough to outweigh the bad ones. In addition to economic reform, a powerful Progress Party might speed up the process of making Norwegian politics in general more populistic, which would be a good thing for democracy. A Norwegian social democrat reading that previous sentence would spill ecological coffee all over his keyboard in shock and outrage. Allow me to explain. There is a democracy deficit in Norway. Exhibit A: 85% of voters would like to reduce alcohol taxes, (including 48% of Christian People's Party voters, hardly practicioners of wild, Scandinavian bacchanalias.) And yet - only one party on Stortinget wants to do something about it. Actually, one and a half, if you count the Conservatives, but they obviously don't consider the matter important, although in principle they agree. Why? It can't be lack of information. Norwegians have been whining about their beer prices for ages. They whine at home, and they rejoice abroad. The only possible explanation is that Stortinget on this issue of visible public discontent does not by far represent the will of the people. In a larger sense, of course, alcohol taxes don't really matter, and our politicians may feel justified in attending problems they believe are more important. But that is for the people to decide, not the politicians, and just as these taxes are symbolic of a dangerous attitude towards taxes, they're also symptomatic of a democracy deficit. What other issues do politicians decide upon without consulting me? Recently I wrote about tabloid news and populism, and how the introduction of tabloid TV news in Norway was followed by the rise of right-wing populism. I think there's a connection, and it all has to do with two incompatible worldviews. In Norway, serious politicians live up in the skies. They make Big Decisions about the Big Issues, taking the Big Factors into account. In their view, government makes the world go around, and that makes them pretty important people. They see further than their countrymen, and have grave responsibilities that can't be shared with their lessers. Serious journalists agree with them, and confirm their self-image by writing at length about the Big Issues, the Big Factors, and the Big Decisions, and by taking part in that grave responsibility of seeing so much further than their countrymen. The populist and the tabloid journalist may live up in the skies, but they have their eyes and cameras pointed at the ground. When tabloid newspapers report crimes in grisly details and big headlines, serious journalists scoff. "Who cares about some brutal murder? The important issues are settled up here - we should know, we cover them every day." In a larger sense, perhaps they're right. And when the populist complains about silly taxes, the serious politicians scoff. "Who cares about cheap beer? There are far more important problems to solve, and it's really all very complicated, we don't have time for this." And again, in a larger sense, perhaps they're right. But then again, maybe they're just full of shit, and we don't get to hear about it because the journalists won't tell us, and we don't get to do anything about it because nobody represents us. And that's where we need the sensationalists and the demagogues, to maintain that link between street and Parliament. Norway is lucky to have populists. This is their hour.
Monday, October 07, 2002
Posted
21:13 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
European political parties can enforce discipline within their own ranks much more thoroughly, because they can punish dissent by ending troublemakers' carreers. But by moving the incentive for politicians away from pleasing the voters to pleasing the party hierarchy, there is a disconnect between the people they are supposed to represent and the politicians themselves. Since politicians are elected on a party list system, there is also little to bind voters to politicians. The concept of "my Senator" or "my Congressman" simply does not exist in a system of proportional respresentation. I also agree that the who's most democratic angle to my previous post was a sidetrack - what I was really interested in was looking at the different ways democracy can be implemented, and their pros and cons. More about that later, perhaps. I have an image of society as a gigantic neural network, where forms of government are represented by algorithms and topology, but it's too late in the evening to flesh it out. ([*] Now there's a phrase I never expected to write.)
Wednesday, October 02, 2002
Posted
20:00 CET
by Bjørn Stærk
Whatever Kerim Chatty was up to it seems there are serious flaws in Sweden's ability to handle terrorism. It's long been viewed as perhaps the safest place in Europe in which to hide. Now intelligence sources in America and France have told Newsnight that they believe attempts are being made from Sweden to co-ordinate terrorist cells across the rest of Europe and North Africa. In short, Sweden has become a base. .. Stockholm's suburbs are a refuge for those in exile from Eastern Europe, Asia and North Africa. Many still pursue the politics of their homelands, a few will plan vengeance against regimes they've fled. But as one terrorist advisor to the Government told me, the Swedes believe any such plots will be directed outside, away from Sweden. The lessons of 9/ 11 have yet to be learned. Kerim Chatty is the 29 year old convert to radical Islam who has been to Saudi Arabia, has shared a prison cell with a suspected al-Qaeda member, has taken flying lessons in Florida, was caught trying to get a gun aboard a plane from Stockholm to London, and who has now been released by Swedish police on grounds of lack of evidence that he intended to hijack it. The investigation continues, but the police says their suspicion has weakened, and the courts didn't feel they had reason to hold him. Minister of Justice Thomas Bodström defends himself: - It is obviously not true that we don't take these questions seriously. We are one of the governments in Europe which has done most to push through routines for exchange of information, says Thomas Bodström. The Minister of Justice even counterattacks the US by comparing the release of the suspected hijacker whom the prosecution haven't found any evidence against, and the Swedish 23 year old who is being held prisoner on Cuba without the United States informing him what he is being suspected of. - We're not going to, as certain other countries, just lock up people indeterminately. .. Even the slightest suspicion of crimes of this sort is grounds for the police to act. Preparation for a terrorist attack, for instance, is punishable by life sentence. We couldn't possibly have a stricter law. Which kind of misses the point. Swedish law is not really the issue here, and neither is the intentions of the Swedish government. What is being questioned is their awareness of the problem, their attention on it, and their resource allocation. The war on terrorism requires not so much new laws as increased attention on what we know now for certain is a large, credible, but elusive threat against all Western countries. It's also a threat that won't protest if you pretend it doesn't exist. My impression is that Sweden doesn't take it seriously, and if the al-Qaeda have gotten the same impression, well, then Sweden has a problem.
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